媒体报道｜徐伟钧：中日交流正在恢复，但关系解冻仍遥远

IPP评论是国家高端智库华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）官方微信平台

导语：8月24日至27日，日本跨党派议员团“日中次世代交流委员会”3名国会议员访华，并于27日在北京与中共中央对外联络部副部长陆慷举行会谈。这是去年11月日本首相高市早苗发表涉台错误言论以来，日本国会议员代表团首次在华与中方开展党际接触。此外，近期日中友好议员联盟、日本国际贸易促进协会以及关西地区经济界也相继推动或筹划访华。

随着11月深圳APEC临近，半官方和民间层面的接触，能否逐步为中日高层恢复互动创造条件，并推动双边关系止跌企稳，仍值得观察。

IPP副研究员徐伟钧在接受《南华早报》采访时指出，日本跨党派议员团此次访华主要出于危机管控需要，是部分主张维持对华沟通的日本议员通过非核心行政渠道推动的一次“半官方”外交。在他看来，高市政府目前并未表现出改善对华关系的明显意愿，在台湾问题和安全问题上的立场也没有出现调整迹象，因此中日关系短期内仍难真正解冻。

报道于8月21日刊登在《南华早报》，原标题为“Japan lawmakers to visit China in bid to cool row, but thaw unlikely: experts”。

在双边关系陷入严重低谷约10个月后，日本国会议员代表团于8月24日至27日访问北京。这是中日关系恶化以来，日本议员首次组成代表团访华。代表团成员包括日本国会众议院议员、自民党议员桥本岳（Gaku Hashimoto），以及主要在野党中道改革联合的伊佐进一（Shinichi Isa）等人。

8月24日至27日，日本跨党派议员团访华。图为代表团成员（从左至右）：自民党众议员桥本岳、中道改革联合众议员伊佐进一、公明党参议员川村雄大。图源：NHK

对于此次访问，华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）副研究员徐伟钧表示，访问更像是由一部分主张维持对华沟通的日本议员，通过非核心行政渠道推动的一次“半官方”外交行动。

他指出，代表团成员中，桥本岳是唯一来自执政党自民党的议员，但他并非高市早苗内阁成员，也没有担任重要外交政策职务，通常被认为对华立场相对友好。同时，徐伟钧表示，没有公开信息显示高市首相官邸、日本外务省或自民党领导层都未曾正式授权该代表团访华。因而此次访问更多是出于危机管控需要，并不意味着中日关系即将解冻。

海颐智库日本研究中心主任陈洋则指出，日本议员代表团此次访华不能简单等同于中日关系解冻，但这是一个“值得关注的积极信号”。他认为，这表明中日双方都在努力恢复此前被冻结的政治沟通渠道，为阻止中日关系继续恶化、推动双边关系企稳创造条件。

去年11月7日，高市早苗在日本国会表示，如果北京对台湾发动军事攻击或实施海上封锁，可能构成日本的“存亡危机事态”，暗示东京届时可能援引集体自卫权。此后，中日关系迅速恶化，跌至多年来的最低点。

高市早苗7月底表示，中国是日本“重要的邻国”，日方愿继续保持各层级沟通。但与此同时，其政府在台湾和安全问题上的基本立场并未发生变化。Getty Images

台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分，中国不承诺放弃使用武力，保留采取一切必要措施的选项。包括美国和日本在内，大多数国家并不承认台湾是独立国家，但华盛顿反对以武力改变台海现状，并承诺继续向台湾提供武器。今年以来，中方加强了对日本军事用户、军事用途等两用物项的出口管制，而日本则加快推进防卫能力建设，并深化与美国以及菲律宾、澳大利亚等地区伙伴的军事合作。

徐伟钧表示，此次代表团中其他主要成员来自不同在野党，他们在外交、安全、历史认知以及对华政策等方面，都在不同程度上区别于高市早苗所代表的“保守政治路线”。这些议员主动推动访华，反映出日本政治内部一些力量认为，在高市政府领导下，中日关系已经恶化得过于严重。在这些人看来，即使两国政府之间现阶段很难展开政治对话，也必须保留某种与中国进行直接沟通的渠道。

虽然中日政府间关系明显降温，但日本并没有完全中断与中国的接触，议员、经贸团体等非政府或半官方渠道仍在尝试维持沟通。

会说中文的日本议员伊佐进一，大约20年前曾在日本驻华大使馆工作。他此前在社交媒体上发文警告称，目前日中关系正处于自1972年两国邦交正常化以来的“最差状态”。他写道：

“这种局面继续下去，对日本和中国任何一方的国家利益都没有好处。无论如何，两国之间都需要保留一扇对话的窗口。”

陈洋认为，代表团的跨党派构成说明，改善对华关系并非日本某一个政党的单独主张，而是在日本政治光谱中具有一定共同基础的诉求。这表明，日本政界并不是铁板一块。仍然存在希望通过对话管控分歧、恢复交流的政治力量。这个跨党派代表团访华具有较为突出的象征意义。此访更重要的价值，在于重新打开中日政治沟通的大门。他指出，日本社会各界推动恢复与中国交流的努力似乎已经呈现出“一定的连续性”。

今年6月，桥本岳曾以日本国际贸易促进协会代理会长身份访问北京，并与中国外交部副部长华春莹会面。日本国际贸易促进协会会长、日本前外相岩屋毅（Takeshi Iwaya）预计也将在9月访问中国。

徐伟钧表示，目前高市政府尚未表现出改善对华关系的明显意愿，也没有迹象显示其将在台湾和安全问题上改变立场。在他看来，中日关系在短期内很难实现解冻。

他强调，“中国反对高市政府的错误政策，但并不拒绝与日本开展交流。”

9月3日，担任议员联盟会长的前自民党干事长森山裕在国会向记者透露，日本跨党派组织日中友好议员联盟正在争取在9月实现访华。图源：新华社

陈洋同样认为，中日关系能否真正解冻，将取决于几个因素：两国高层政治交往能否恢复正常，日本政府能否避免在台湾等核心问题上采取“挑衅”举动，以及双方能否把对话进一步转化为务实合作。如果日本一方面派遣议员访问中国，另一方面又继续在台湾和安全政策问题上释放强烈的挑衅性信号，这将无助于改善双边关系。

陈洋表示，日本跨党派议员代表团此次访华，可以被视为中日关系“开始破冰的一个迹象”。但两国关系最终能否全面解冻，仍有待观察。

徐伟钧 华南理工大学公共政策研究院副研究员

*以下为英文版，供读者对照参考。发表时内容有轻微删改。（上下滑动查看）。

A reported trip to China next week by a cross-party group of Japanese lawmakers could carry “pronounced” symbolic weight but is unlikely to herald a thaw in ties between the two neighbours, Chinese experts suggest.

For the first time since bilateral relations succumbed to a bitter chill 10 months ago, a delegation of Japan’s parliamentary members will visit Beijing from August 24 to 27, according to reports by multiple Japanese outlets on Wednesday.

Those legislators – including some from the lower chamber of Japan’s National Diet such as Gaku Hashimoto from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Shinichi Isa of the main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) – were in talks to confirm meetings with officials from the Communist Party’s diplomatic arm, the reports noted.

Their travel would mark a “semi-official” diplomatic effort through a non-core executive channel by a fraction of the Japanese lawmakers who advocated maintaining communication with China, said Xu Weijun, an associate research professor at the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) at South China University of Technology in Guangzhou.

Although Hashimoto is the only identified member from the ruling party in the delegation, he is not in Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet and does not hold a key foreign policy role, according to Xu, who added that Hashimoto was considered to have a relatively friendly stance towards China.

There was no public information indicating that Takaichi’s office, Japan’s foreign ministry or the LDP leadership had issued a formal mandate for the reported delegation, Xu said.

“This visit is more about crisis management and does not mean that China-Japan relations are about to thaw.”

Chen Yang, director of the Japan Research Centre under the Beijing-based Haiyi Institute, also said that the Japanese delegation’s visit should not simply be equated with the thawing of bilateral relations, although it would be “a positive signal that merits attention”.

“It shows that both China and Japan are working to restore frozen channels of political communication and create conditions for China-Japan relations to stop deteriorating and to stabilise,” he said.

The bilateral relationship plunged to its worst state in years after Takaichi told the Japanese parliament on November 7 that a military attack on or naval blockade of Taiwan by Beijing could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, implying that Tokyo could invoke its right to collective self-defence.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

Tensions continued to escalate this year as Beijing tightened restrictions on exports of rare earths and dual-use items to Japan, while Tokyo accelerated its defence build-up and deepened military bonds with the US and regional partners, including the Philippines and Australia.

Xu said the opposing parties from which the reported delegation’s other prominent members hailed, diverged from the “conservative political line” represented by Takaichi to varying degrees on diplomacy, security, historical perceptions as well as in their approaches to China.

“Their initiative to push for the visit reflects a view among some forces in Japanese politics that relations with China have deteriorated too severely under Takaichi,” he said. “[They think] even if political dialogue between the two governments is difficult, some channel for direct communication with China must be preserved.”

Shinichi Isa, a Chinese-speaking lawmaker who worked at the Japanese embassy in Beijing about two decades ago, warned in a social media post on Wednesday that relations between the two countries were now in “the worst state” since Beijing and Tokyo normalised diplomatic relations in 1972.

“This situation continuing is by no means in the national interest of either Japan or China,” he wrote. “Whatever the case, a window for dialogue between the two countries is necessary.”

Chen said the delegation’s cross-party composition indicated that improving ties with China was not the initiative of any single party but a shared aspiration across Japan’s political spectrum.

“It shows that … Japan’s political circle is not monolithic. There are still political forces that hope to manage differences through dialogue and restore exchanges,” he said. “The symbolic significance of this cross-party delegation’s visit to China is pronounced.”

He said the visit would have more value in reopening the door to bilateral political communication, noting that the push by Japan’s various communities to resume exchanges with China appeared to be “developing a certain degree of continuity”.

He was referring to Hashimoto’s trip to Beijing as acting head of the Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade in June, when he met Chinese vice foreign minister Hua Chunying, as well as an expected visit to China next month by the association’s president, Takeshi Iwaya, who was Japan’s foreign minister in 2024-25.

Xu said the Takaichi administration had yet to show willingness to improve relations with Beijing and that there were no signs it would alter its positions on Taiwan and security.

“It will be very difficult to achieve a thaw in China-Japan relations in the short term,” he said. “China opposes the Takaichi administration’s erroneous policies but it does not reject exchanges with Japan.”

Chen also said a thaw would depend on whether high-level political exchanges could return to normal, whether the Japanese government could avoid “provocative” actions on core issues such as Taiwan and whether the two sides could turn dialogue into practical cooperation.

He said it would not be helpful if the Japanese side “sends lawmakers to China while continuing to issue strongly provocative signals on Taiwan and security policy”.

“The visit by the cross-party Japanese delegation can be seen as ‘a sign that the ice is beginning to break’ in China-Japan relations,” Chen said. “But whether relations will fully thaw remains to be seen.”

南华早报记者｜Orange Wang

IPP评论热门文章

关于IPP

华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）是一个独立、非营利性的知识创新与公共政策研究平台。IPP围绕中国的体制改革、社会政策、中国话语权与国际关系等开展一系列的研究工作，并在此基础上形成知识创新和政策咨询协调发展的良好格局。IPP的愿景是打造开放式的知识创新和政策研究平台，成为领先世界的中国智库。