媒体关注｜中国扩大对日出口管制，IPP学者：一次制度化、精准靶向的反制

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导语：6月29日，中国商务部将20家日本实体列入出口管制管控名单，另有20家日本实体被列入出口管制关注名单。时隔四个月，中方再次扩大对日出口管制范围。与2月公布的首批名单相比，本次被列入管控名单的20家日本实体突出防务研发和军工供应链指向。其中，防卫研究所（NIDS）、陆上装备研究所、舰艇装备研究所和航空装备研究所等机构，均属于日本陆海空装备体系的核心研发力量。同时，名单还覆盖多家隶属于三菱集团这一日本军工最大承包商的实体。

当日，IPP副研究员徐伟钧在接受《南华早报》采访时表示，最新出台的清单是一次制度化、精准靶向的经济安全反制，将进一步压缩日本军工产业链获取中国两用物项的空间，回应日本近年来加速“再军事化”和军国主义倾向抬头的趋势。

中国商务部6月29日表示，为制止日本“再军事化”和拥核企图，已将20家参与提升日本军事能力的日本实体列入出口管制名单。另有20家日本实体也被列入单独的观察名单。商务部补充说，这些举措旨在维护中国国家安全和利益，并履行防扩散等国际义务。

商务部发言人表示，中方依法列单的行为仅针对”少数“日本实体，相关措施仅针对两用物项，不影响中日正常经贸往来。诚信守法的日本实体完全无需担心。

被列入出口管制名单的实体包括日本防卫研究所，以及陆上、海上和航空武器系统的军事研究机构。名单还包括三菱电机和三菱重工业旗下的若干实体，其业务涵盖防务和空间系统、专业软件开发、精密仪器制造、工程服务、物流、海事技术以及特种车辆技术支持。川崎重工业旗下、作为日本顶尖的专业航空航天公司的日本飞机株式会社（Nippi Corporation）也在名单之列。

三菱重工的军工产品包括驱逐舰“吉井”号，该舰于去年12月在日本长崎造船厂下水。图源：日经亚洲

今年2月，包括日本一些最大企业在内的20家日本实体被列入中国出口管制名单，另有20家被列入观察名单，以加强对特定商品贸易的审查，并对东京施加更大的经济压力。此前，北京在1月宣布将加强对两用物项的出口管制。

中国出口商已被禁止向出口管制名单上的企业和机构出口两用物项——即具有军事和民用双重用途的物品。

据日媒报道，日本首次从废旧的家用空调中提取稀土。日媒称，这是在中国持续加强对日本出口管制的背景下，日本为寻求降低对华依赖的尝试。图源：央视新闻

商务部新闻发言人称，遗憾的是，一段时间以来，日方不思悔改，反而在错误的道路上越走越远，加紧推动“新型军国主义”步伐，加速“再军事化”，部署进攻性武器，在境外发射进攻型导弹。

今年5月初，中方谴责日本所谓八十年来首次在海外进行的“进攻性导弹”试射，称东京的“新军国主义”和加剧军备竞赛的势头正在增强，并威胁地区稳定。在由美国和菲律宾主导的“肩并肩2026”联合军演期间，日本自卫队在菲律宾发射了一枚88式岸舰导弹。

今年的美菲“肩并肩”联合军演，日本自卫队不仅首次大规模派遣作战人员参演，还公然在菲律宾境内发射了2枚88式岸基反舰导弹。图源：法新社

中方表示，这是自第二次世界大战以来，日本首次在海外发射“进攻性”武器。该导弹既可用于进攻，也可用于防御，但将其部署在日本领土之外可能被视为一种进攻姿态。

中国外交部发言人林剑表示，这标志着日本明显偏离战后和平主义立场。

华南理工大学公共政策研究院副研究员徐伟钧表示，出口管制清单的最新增项标志着一次重大升级：

“这不仅仅是常规管控，而是一项制度化、精准靶向的经济安全反制措施，旨在限制日本军工产业链获取中国的两用物项……这是对日本军国主义倾向的严厉回应。”

但徐伟钧表示，中方并无意发动全面经济战，此次仅针对少数日本实体。

“中国正在将军事实体与诚实守法的日本企业区分开来。这不会扰乱亚洲两大经济体之间的正常关系。”

徐伟钧表示，此举将对稀土供应产生影响。稀土是日本军方一些关键装备的原材料，包括高科技传感器和精确制导武器。

“这取决于稀土物项是否被认定为两用物项，以及最终用户是否在清单上。并非所有日本进口商都会因其国籍而自动失去合法获取渠道。” “但中国出口商可能会出于合规考虑更加谨慎，暂停或延迟交易。未被针对的日本进口商可能被要求提供更多关于最终用途和转售渠道的信息。”

本文翻译自2026年6月29日香港南华早报的报道，报道原标题为“China adds 20 Japanese entities to export-control list over remilitarisation concerns”，作者 Frank Chen。

*以下为英文报道原文，供读者对照参考（请上下滑动查看）。

The Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that to deter Japan’s “remilitarisation” and its attempts to “acquire nuclear weapons”, it has added 20 Japanese entities “involved in enhancing Japan’s military capabilities” to an export-control list.

Twenty Japanese entities have also been added to a separate watch list.

The moves were made to safeguard China’s national security and interests and to fulfil international obligations such as non-proliferation, the ministry added.

A ministry spokesperson said that China’s actions were in accordance with the law, were only aimed at a “small number” of Japanese entities, and only targeted dual-use items.

“They will not affect normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan, and honest and law-abiding Japanese entities have absolutely nothing to worry about,” the spokesperson said.

The entities added to the export-control list include Japan’s National Institute for Defense Studies and military research institutes for ground, naval and air weapons systems.

They also include several entities under the umbrella of Mitsubishi Electric and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, with businesses that span defence and space systems, specialised software development, precision instrument manufacturing, engineering services, logistics, maritime technology and technical support for special vehicles.

Nippi Corporation, a Kawasaki Heavy Industries subsidiary that is Japan’s premier specialist aerospace company, is also on the list.

In February, 20 Japanese entities, including some of Japan’s largest companies, were put on China’s export-control list and 20 more on a watch list to step up scrutiny of trade in selected goods and apply more economic pressure on Tokyo. Those moves followed an announcement by Beijing in January that it was strengthening export controls for dual-use items.

Chinese exporters have been banned from shipping dual-use goods – items with military and civilian applications – to the firms and institutions on the export-control list.

“Unfortunately, for some time now, Japan has not repented but has instead gone further down the wrong path, accelerating its ‘new type’ of militarism, speeding up remilitarisation and deploying offensive weapons and launching offensive missiles overseas,” the spokesperson said.

In early May, China condemned what it called Japan’s first “offensive missile” test overseas in eight decades, saying Tokyo’s “neo-militarism” and intensified arms race had gained momentum and threatened regional stability.

During the “Balikatan 2026” joint drill led by the United States and the Philippines, Japanese forces fired a Type 88 surface-to-ship missile in the Philippines.

China said it was the first time Japan had launched an “offensive” weapon abroad since World War II. The missile can be used for both offensive and defensive purposes, but deploying it outside Japanese territory could be seen as an offensive posture.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said it marked a significant departure from Japan’s post-war pacifist stance.

Xu Weijun, a public policy analyst at South China University of Technology, said the latest additions to the export-control list marked a major escalation.

“It’s more than routine control; it’s an institutionalised, precision-targeted economic security countermeasure designed to restrict the Japanese military industrial chain’s access to Chinese dual-use items … it’s a harsh response to Japan’s militarism,” he said.

But Xu said Beijing had no appetite for a full-scale economic war since only a small number of Japanese entities were targeted.

“China is drawing a distinction between military entities and honest, law-abiding Japanese enterprises,” he said. “It will not disrupt normal relations between the two largest economies in Asia.”

Xu said there would be an impact on rare earth supplies. These are critical in some of the equipment used by Japan’s military, including hi-tech sensors and precision-guided munitions.

“It depends on whether rare earth items are deemed dual-use and the end-user is on the list or not,” he said. “Not all Japanese importers will automatically lose legitimate access simply because of their nationality.

“But Chinese exporters may exercise greater caution for compliance and suspend or delay deals. Japanese importers not targeted may be required to furnish more information on final use and resale channels.”

徐伟钧 华南理工大学公共政策研究院 副研究员

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