这届大学生还愿意结婚生娃吗？最新调查结果出人意料……

近期，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心联合举办了“中国大学生婚育观研讨会”，会上公布《中国大学生婚育观报告》。报告指出，61%的大学生明确表示会结婚，仅有7%明确表示不结婚，同时理想结婚年龄为27.82岁。总体而言大学生的结婚意愿高于预期。

A report released recently shows that 61 percent of college students were certain that they would get married, with only 7 percent rejecting the possibility completely. Their ideal age for marriage averaged 27.8.

从生育意愿来看，大学生群体的平均理想子女数为1.85，超过80%的大学生明确表示，他们的理想子女数是两个。

The ideal number of children was 1.85, and over 80 percent of college students put the ideal number of children at two.

该报告抽取将近9,800份受访者样本，他们的平均年龄约为20.3岁，来自全国30所高校，独生子女占比将近36%。

The report surveyed nearly 9,800 students pursuing an undergraduate, graduate or doctoral degree between November and December last year. The average age of respondents was 20.3.

这一结果让研究者和部分网民都有些吃惊。近些年，中国的结婚登记数和出生人口数持续走低，2021年我国结婚登记数据为763.7万对，创30多年来新低；而2021年全年出生人口仅为1062万人，2020年该数字为1200万。

Marriages and birthrates have been on the decline in China for years. Official data shows that around 7.64 million marriages were registered in 2021, the lowest figure in more than three decades. The number of newborns last year also fell to 10.62 million, compared with 12 million in 2020.

随着去年五月底三孩生育政策及配套支持措施的出台，关于如何提升结婚生育意愿的讨论也涉及到“Z世代”青年，也就是1995年到2010年出生的年轻人，包括很大一部分大学生群体。

Generation Z ：broadly defined as people born between 1995 and 2010.

中国人民大学家庭与性别研究中心主任李婷教授接受采访时表示，研究结果提示大学生对婚姻和生育仍有期待。

Li Ting, a professor from the Renmin University of China's Population Development Studies Center and one of the researchers involved in the survey, said, "The younger generation's yearning for marriage is still evident."

“这体现了中国文化的底色。区别于西方国家的去家庭化、去婚姻化和去制度化，中国文化底色中的家庭联系还是很重要的，大学生对婚姻和家庭仍然有向往。”她说道。

但是，李婷认为，这份报告最核心的信息应该是在当代中国大学生眼中，婚姻和生育的价值基础已经发生变化。“我们不能用过去的想法来看待年轻人。”她说道。

"The fundamental value of marriage and family has changed in the eyes of college students. For the rest of society and policymakers, it is time to break away from old social stigmas and adapt to new trends among the young," Li said.

报告显示，在促进结婚意愿的因素上，大学生最看重的是婚姻的精神情感支持功能，同时也希望兼顾物质支持属性；在对生育效用的感知上，大学生更看重养育子女的意义与情感价值，考虑最少的是子女的保障功能。

Instead of seeing marriage primarily as a source of financial security, they expect marriage to provide emotional and spiritual satisfaction, according the report. In terms of childbearing, most respondents resonated strongly with the perception that raising a child is important and meaningful, and that a baby can be a source of happiness. Fewer cared about their child’s role in taking care of them later in life.

也就是说，大学生选择恋爱的主要原因是要寻找一个人互相帮助。实现共同进步的目标；选择婚姻是寻求精神上的支持陪伴和互相倾诉、自我价值的需求；而选择生育则是在实现自身成长的同时，获得陪伴子女成长的情感价值。

"They (college students) engage in a romantic relationships to find a partner to grow old with and work toward important goals. They want to get married to have someone to talk to and as an emotional buttress at home. They want to have a baby as a supplement to their growth and help nurture their marital relationship," Li said.

李婷表示，在整个过程中，他们都更突出“自己的情感价值和意义”，这区别于上一辈将结婚和生育视为一种社会规范，或是更看重婚姻和家庭的社会功能基础。

其中最典型的一个例子就是“养儿防老”观念的淡化。

一位接受采访的大二学生坦言，“养儿防老”听上去非常可笑。“如果我想为自己的晚年多添一份保障，我还不如去能多买几份保险来得实际。”她说道。

"The saying — raise children to support yourself in your old age — sounds absurd to me," said a sophomore student in a university in Beijing. "If I need some assurance about how I'll be looked after when I’m old, it's better I buy more insurance."

面对Z世代青年，各种花式“催婚”、“催生”可能反而会引起他们的反感。

在国家鼓励生育、积极减轻生育养育教育负担的大背景下，李婷表示，“催婚”、“催生”对于现在的年轻人或许没有很大用处，他们更需要耐心和漫长的理解。

"It is pointless to try to force young people to get married and have children. The rest of society needs to be patient and try to understand their position," she added.

此份报告另外一个重要发现是对下一步生育配套支持政策的启发。

报告显示，在对生育阻碍因素的感知上，住房和养育成本对大学生影响最大，且男大学生更在意婚育成本，女大学生更在意自我发展机会，这提示必须考虑统合两性需求的公共政策。

中国人口学会副会长、南开大学经济学教授原新在研讨会上提到，在“公领域”，女性参与社会劳动的形象已经深入人心，但是在“私领域”，男性依然有更多的理由去投身于职场奋斗、挣钱养家，照顾家庭和孩子的更多压在了女性身上。“所以女性的压力非常大，”他说。

Yuan Xin, deputy president of the China Population Association and a professor at Nankai University, said that in recent years, the participation of women in the work force has become a norm in China, but that women still shoulder the bulk of responsibility in the private domain, namely, household chores and taking care of children. "No doubt they are under a lot of pressure," he said.

专家表示，在出台生育支持措施时，不应当将工作和生育对立起来，而应当尽力满足女性对自身成长、工作发展的需求。

As China rolls out a series of supportive measures to encourage births and facilitate the implementation of its three-child policy, experts said that it is essential for new policies to incorporate the concerns of both genders.

我国多地已经出台了诸如延长产假、提供生育津贴等生育支持措施，效果仍待评估。随着当代大学生逐渐迈入社会，他们在人生的岔路口会做出什么样的选择？我们也拭目以待。

记者：王小予

编辑：商桢

来源：严肃的人口学八卦微信公众号 民政局 国家统计局