NFL第10周三大数据：75%霰弹枪阵型与43%人盯人防守

The NFL enters Week 10, and the sample size is now large enough that team identities and weaknesses are clear. Before Sunday's games, three sets of numbers are worth watching.

The Texans want to throw the ball

Houston runs the ball on only 37.1 percent of plays, ranking 24th in the league. Through nine weeks, the Texans have just 697 yards on the ground. It's clear this team wants to lean on quarterback CJ Stroud, and it should.

The Browns' defense will primarily play man coverage, ranking first in the NFL at 43 percent. Against man coverage, Stroud is 40-of-66 for 411 yards with seven touchdowns and no interceptions, and has taken just one sack. He likes to target slot receivers in these looks, with 44 targets to the slot against man coverage. Players like Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson can expect significant targets. Houston has abandoned the run game and should continue to do so, leaning on Stroud's arm.

Sunday Night Football: Bengals vs. Steelers

This is a classic AFC North matchup for first place in the division. The Steelers' offense holds the advantage: Cincinnati's defense has struggled against plays over the middle and outside runs, with an EPA allowed against outside runs of -0.25. Teams have learned to run away from Dexter Lawrence and make the Bengals' linebackers run horizontally.

Pittsburgh is a top-five rushing offense, but it doesn't run zone schemes—it's primarily a man-running team, so you won't see many outside zone runs. That doesn't eliminate the ability to get out in space: Pittsburgh can run tosses and pin-and-pull concepts to get to the outside. Expect the Steelers to use the run game to create advantages in the pass game. The Bengals' linebackers struggle against play-action looks, so Aaron Rodgers should have answers over the middle.

The Bengals' offense

Limiting Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase and Tee Higgins is the real challenge. Out of the shotgun, Cincinnati leads the league in EPA per pass, pass success rate, passing yards and passing touchdowns. The Bengals have abandoned the under-center game in recent weeks and are now in the shotgun 75 percent of the time, the most in the NFL.

Pittsburgh likes to run Cover 3 against shotgun looks, allowing a 42.6 percent success rate and an EPA per play of -0.2, and ranks ninth in EPA allowed per pass against the shotgun. Against Cover 3, Burrow has thrown for 926 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions with an EPA per play of 0.19.

Can Kirk Cousins fix the Vikings' offense?

Minnesota's offense hasn't been good, and the expectation is it will look significantly better with Cousins, who has familiarity with the franchise and head coach Kevin O'Connell. Cousins has played like a top-12 quarterback this season, far better than what Minnesota has had.

But pump the brakes. The Vikings are a bottom-five rushing team, ranking 29th in EPA per rush. That significantly hurts the O'Connell offense, which needs the run game because the passing game is an extension of it—the biggest reason this offense hasn't looked good no matter who takes the snaps.

The two biggest differences between the Raiders and Vikings offenses this season are their use of man-scheme runs and 11 personnel. Cousins is used to operating in 12 personnel around 50 percent of the time, while the Vikings run 11 personnel 54 percent of the time, often shifting into 12 personnel. Cousins will have to expect more defensive backs on the field as a result.

There are red flags with the Vikings' offensive line and the lack of a rushing attack. But the bottom line: Cousins has been a top-12 quarterback this season, and Minnesota doesn't need him to continue that trend—it needs him to be a top-20 quarterback the rest of the way, and the defense can do the rest. Don't expect fireworks right away, but expect a more efficient offense that can put up 20 points comfortably.